Rams fans have been looking forward to the Jared Goff revenge game, right? Or would it be better to call this the Matthew Stafford revenge game? Whatever the case, the quarterbacks who were traded for each other in March will be competing at SoFi Stadium with the Rams in a huge favorite role against the Lions.
Stafford is playing some of the best football of his career with Los Angeles, and Goff has struggled with Detroit. For that reason, among others, the Rams are one of the biggest favorites of the season.
Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Rams (-15, 50.5)
The Rams go into Week 7 second in the NFL in yards per play, while the Lions enter 29th. Detroit ranks 23rd in passing yards, but over 46% of those have come in the fourth quarter of games this season. A lot of garbage time offense has made the statistical profile look a little bit better than it really has been.
Stat after stat in this matchup justifies the huge line. The Rams are averaging almost four more yards per catch than the Lions. Los Angeles is eighth in yards per play allowed and Detroit is 31st. Opponents have scored on 35.5% of possessions against the Rams. They’ve scored on 47.7% of possessions against the Lions. The Rams have scored on 50% of their possessions. The Lions have scored on 30.6% of theirs.
These types of games are tough handicaps because you have to worry about focus and motivation. Sean McVay has been open this week about how he could have handled the Goff situation better. Will he and the Rams be out to embarrass the Lions this week? A trip to Houston against the Texans is on deck, so at least the Rams won’t be looking past this game for any reason.
The Rams just might not be able to help themselves from scoring. The Lions’ secondary has been a shambles because of injury all season and the Detroit offense ranks 29th in third-down conversion rate, so the defense never really gets a break.
The one betting angle that makes a ton of sense in this game is the Rams in the first half. McVay was furious about his team’s scoreless first quarter against the Giants. The team responded with 28 points in the second half. Whether the Rams play out the full 60 minutes, they’ll show up in the first half. The Lions have scored only one first-quarter touchdown and only two in the second quarter this season.
That should be enough for the Rams to get out in front and their plan should be to put the game out of reach early and coast to victory.
Pick: Los Angeles Rams -8.5 1st Half
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