Quarterbacks have won nine of the last 12 Super Bowl most valuable player awards and 15 of the last 25. The only non-QB offensive player to win recently was Julian Edelman in the 13-3 snoozefest between the Patriots and Rams in Super Bowl LIII. The other two non-QBs were defensive players (Malcolm Smith and Von Miller).
When looking at the MVP market, it comes down to the quarterbacks. There is a minuscule chance that the Bengals can win this game and Joe Burrow not be the MVP, given recent history and the composition of the team. In fact, Burrow at +225 is a great alternate to betting the Bengals moneyline at +175, as you get more bang for your buck. If the Bengals win, Burrow wins the MVP, barring something fluky and strange.
Matthew Stafford should win the MVP if the Rams win, at least based on recent history, but you can certainly make a case for an Aaron Donald at 16/1 or a Cooper Kupp at 6/1. Unfortunately, the value on those lines isn’t where it should be, but that won’t stop people from betting them. For me, it’s Stafford at +110, Burrow at +225 and maybe a long shot like Jalen Ramsey at 100/1 or Leonard Floyd at 150/1.
Ramsey draws Ja’Marr Chase, which is a tough assignment, but one he can handle. If Ramsey has a couple of picks and a pick-six, he could very well win the award, especially if the game ends up low-scoring. Floyd could benefit from extra attention paid to Miller and Donald.
Picks: Stafford +110; Burrow +225